International Trotskyism
We fight to forge the world party of socialist revolution. We Concente on the building of a revolutionary leadership in the trade unions to fight the bureaucracy who are the main defenders of the capitalist system in the workers movement. All parties who claim to be revolutionary can be judged by this question; do they fight to build a revolutionary leadership to overthrow this bureaucracy and secondly what method to they use to accomplish ths?
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Tuesday, 24 November 2015
The downing of the Russian Su-24 fighter jet and the political implications
Gerry
Downing 24-11-2015
Whatever the truth about violating Turkish airspace (Russia
strongly denies any violation whatsoever) it is clear from the Turkish map
showing the flight path of the two fighters that the finger of land they have
alleged to cross is barely two kilometres wide. That crossing would have taken
a matter of seconds; that could not possibly pose any military threat to
Turkey. Moreover Turkey itself thinks nothing of violating Iraqi and Syrian airspace;
they have done it several hundred times in the past months with the tacit
approval of the US.
The real reason for the shooting down of the jet must be
found in the overall geostrategic and political conflicts in the area. In the
first place let us assert that the overall strategic orientation of US imperialism
has not changed despite the obligation of the US and EU country to take cognisance
of public opinion in its foreign wars adventures after Vietnam 1975 and their failure
to achieve decisive results in Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya. Despite regime
change and bombing the infrastructure of these lands back to the Middle Ages
they have not managed to secure stable pro-imperialist puppet regimes. Regime
change in Iraq has very frustratingly strengthened Iran, another of their
targets for regime change. And they haven’t even yet managed to secure regime
change in Syria.
And that remains a vital part of the strategic goal of USA
foreign policy. The two major backers of ISIS and the other jihadist reactionaries
like the Al Qaeda affiliate, the Al Nusrah Front have been miffed with all the
talk from Secretary of State John Kerry and UK Prime Minister David Cameron about
agreement with Russia. This was supposed to allow Assad to remain for a
temporary transitional period (which obviously could be extended indefinitely) while
ISIS was defeated in a joint bombing campaign and agreement was reached with
the ‘moderates’ (who include the ‘moderate’ Sharia-law jihadists and the almost
invisible Free Syrian Army of the Southern Front). The talk was designed to mollify domestic
public opinion and allow doubting pro-imperialist politicians (remember Claire
Short?) to vote for air strikes, whip up a ‘Falklands Factor’ or national
chauvinism after the Paris Massacre and deal a major blow to Jeremy Corbyn at
the same time.
But the contradictions were too great for the plan to work,
despite the eagerness of Putin to go along with it; Russia even cited the
much-loved Stalinist nostalgic epoch of gross class collaboration in the name
of anti-fascism that was the WWII alliance between Joe Stalin, Winston Churchill
and Theodore Roosevelt. Bombing alone could not defeat ISIS, it needed ground troops.
But sending in US troops in any numbers was far too politically risky; that
left two forces that could conceivable do the job, the Syrian Kurds and Assad’s
army.#
The Syrian Kurds of the YPG and their PKK allies would not
venture too far outside their own territory even as far as Raqqa. And they were
politically unreliable allies, they co-operated with Assad when it suited them
and they were very upset with the US for sanctioning the Turkish air strikes
against them and preventing them from moving west of the Euphrates to link up
with the Kurdish enclave around Afrin in the west. US bombing campaign NEVER
bomb ISIS when it is fighting the Syrian army, lest it assist he survival. And
only recently under pressure from public opinion generated by Russian bombing
have the US begun to bomb the oil trucks taking ISIS crude to Turkey. They have
justified avoided hitting theses very obvious targets which would almost cut
the economic lifeline for ISIS by ridiculously citing their concern for ‘civilian
casualties’. Please…
Speaking in Manila on 19 November at the annual Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit Obama made it clear that he would not end
his support for the Syrian ‘rebels’ while Assad was still in power. He recognised
Islamic State as a “serious threat” but Russia’s efforts in Syria were aimed at
propping up Assad so that was a great problem. "Bottom line is, I do not
foresee a situation in which we can end the civil war in Syria while Assad
remains in power," he said. [1]
Taken together with his support for Turkish bombing of the
Kurds to keep open the ISIS crossing point at Jarabulus for their international
jihadist fighters including Chechens it is clear that Obama via the CIA and Special
Forces on the ground still tacitly supports ISIS, although he cannot say so
publicly. And therefore all the talk of the big rifts between the US and Turkey
and Saudi Arabia are just temporary problems. The downing of the war plane has
gone a long way to sorting out these problems.
Turkey downed the Russian fighter jet because it was hitting
the jihadist fighters who guarded the supply lines to the Al Nusrah Front here
as the USA tacitly guarded the ISIS supply lines at Jarabulus. And the US had
at least tacitly indicated to that that the action was ok. Russia and Assad are
being told that there is a very strict limit to ‘co-operation’.
Notes
[1] Nov 19, 2015 Obama says Syria settlement needed to eliminate Islamic
State, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/19/us-apec-summit-obama-syria-idUSKCN0T80KP20151119
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